Giants vs Tigers Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 5/26/25

San Francisco Giants

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers host the San Francisco Giants on May 26, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup, particularly given both teams are having strong seasons. The Tigers, boasting a record of 34-20, currently rank 2nd in Power Rankings for their bullpen, while their offense is a solid 7th best in MLB, underscoring their overall offensive prowess. The Giants sit just behind with a respectable 31-22 record, but they rank only 21st in MLB for their offense, which could spell trouble for them in this interleague series opener.

Keider Montero is projected to take the mound for the Tigers. Despite being ranked 293rd among starting pitchers, his 1-1 record this season comes with a 5.28 ERA. However, his expected ERA (xERA) of 4.69 predicts better outcomes ahead, suggesting he may be due for some positive regression. Montero has averaged 5.1 innings pitched, but his projected stats indicate below-average performance, including 4.8 hits and 1.9 walks allowed per game.

On the flip side, Hayden Birdsong, also a right-handed pitcher and projected starter for the Giants, has an excellent ERA of 1.91 despite being considered among the worst pitchers in the game based on projected performance metrics. Birdsong’s xFIP of 4.03 hints at a potential decline in form, which could be critical against a competent Tigers lineup.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets indicate this could be a close contest, reflected in the even moneyline for both teams. Given Detroit’s strong offensive metrics and Birdsong’s potential for regression, the Tigers may have the edge in this matchup.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Hayden Birdsong is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme flyball bats like Wilmer Flores tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Keider Montero.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Keider Montero’s sinker utilization has increased by 15.4% from last season to this one (7.7% to 23.1%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Spencer Torkelson has made big improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 6.8% rate last year to 14.4% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.75 Units / 84% ROI)