San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-195
As the San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants on September 8, 2024, the stakes are high. The Padres, currently holding a record of 81-63, are enjoying a strong season and are positioned well in the National League West. In contrast, the Giants sit at 70-73, struggling to find their footing. These teams faced off just yesterday, with the Giants emerging victorious in a 6-3 contest, marking a significant win for the visitors.
On the mound, the Padres are set to start Joe Musgrove, who has had a solid year, ranking as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. Musgrove’s ERA stands at 4.09, indicating he’s been above average, but his 4.91 xERA suggests he may be due for some regression. He pitched impressively in his last outing, going six innings with no earned runs and striking out eight batters. His low walk rate of 6.6% could be crucial against a Giants offense that has been patient but may struggle to capitalize on that strength.
Opposing Musgrove is Spencer Bivens, who has had a mixed year with a 2.86 ERA but is projected to pitch only four innings today. Bivens’ low strikeout rate of 17.1% could be a concern against a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in MLB for the least strikeouts.
The Padres’ offense ranks 7th overall and boasts the best batting average in the league, while the Giants’ offense struggles at 21st. With the projections favoring the Padres, who are expected to score 4.67 runs, they should have the edge in this matchup, especially considering their potent offense against a less effective Giants lineup.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+165)Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Matt Chapman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 97.4-mph over the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Joe Musgrove – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Joe Musgrove is expected to average a total of 6.8 strikeouts in today’s game.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Kyle Higashioka is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Francisco (#1-best on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 19.6% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 70 games (+12.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 67 away games (+6.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+550/-1000)Michael Conforto has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.00 Units / 150% ROI)