Giants vs D-Backs Picks and Odds – September 23, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks gear up to host the San Francisco Giants on September 23, 2024, at Chase Field, the stakes are high. With the D-Backs boasting an 87-69 record, they’re having a strong season, while the Giants sit at 77-79, reflecting a more average year. This National League West matchup has implications for the D-Backs as they aim to solidify their playoff positioning.

Arizona will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound, a left-hander who, despite a 5.09 ERA, has been somewhat unlucky this season. His xFIP of 4.29 suggests better days could be ahead, and the D-Backs will hope he can capitalize on facing a Giants lineup that ranks 18th in both overall offense and home runs. Rodriguez’s ability to strike out 6.2 batters on average per game could stymie a Giants’ batting order that struggles with a 21st-ranked team batting average.

Hayden Birdsong will counter for San Francisco. He’s had a rough go this season, with a 4.74 ERA and high walk rates. His tendency to allow fly balls could be disastrous against Arizona’s powerful lineup, which ranks 4th in home runs. The D-Backs’ offense is a juggernaut, ranking as the 1st-best overall, making this a tough challenge for Birdsong.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the D-Backs with a 63% projected win probability, slightly above the implied 60% from betting odds. Arizona’s offense seems poised to capitalize on Birdsong’s weaknesses, especially his control issues. Ketel Marte has been a standout recently, with a .348 batting average and four home runs over the last week, providing a spark for the D-Backs.

With Arizona’s bullpen ranked 1st and San Francisco’s 5th, the late innings could be closely contested. However, the early advantage leans heavily in favor of Arizona, making them the clear favorites in this series opener.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Hayden Birdsong’s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph ranks in the 87th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .291 figure is quite a bit higher than his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to wring up 16.7 outs in today’s game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Joc Pederson has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 13.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 102 games (+29.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 away games (+7.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+11.65 Units / 14% ROI)