Giants vs D-Backs Picks and Odds – September 23, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the National League West heats up, the Arizona Diamondbacks face off against the San Francisco Giants on September 23, 2024, at Chase Field. The game holds significance for the Diamondbacks, who are having a good season with an 87-69 record and are vying to solidify their playoff position. The Giants, on the other hand, stand at 77-79, reflecting a more average season.

Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound, bringing with him a mixed bag of stats. Despite a 5.09 ERA, his xFIP of 4.29 suggests he’s been unlucky and might be due for a turnaround. His last start was impressive, with Rodriguez striking out 11 in six innings. His strikeout prowess will be crucial against the Giants’ lineup, which ranks as the 21st-best offense this season. San Francisco’s Matt Chapman has been a bright spot with a .786 OPS, but the team’s overall struggles at the plate make them vulnerable.

Hayden Birdsong starts for the Giants, facing a daunting task against Arizona’s elite offense. The Diamondbacks rank 1st in offense according to the Power Rankings, with notable power that could exploit Birdsong’s tendency to give up fly balls and walks. Birdsong’s high 13.9% walk rate could spell trouble against Arizona’s patient hitters, who rank 5th in drawing walks.

The bullpen battle is equally interesting, with the D-Backs boasting the 2nd-best bullpen and the Giants not far behind at 5th. However, the Diamondbacks’ offensive firepower and the Giants’ pitching vulnerabilities play into Arizona’s favor. Despite being a big betting favorite with a -190 moneyline, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests some value in betting on the Giants, projecting them with a 41% win probability, slightly higher than the betting market implies. This presents an intriguing dynamic for bettors considering an underdog wager.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Hayden Birdsong’s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph ranks in the 87th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .288 figure is quite a bit higher than his .229 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to average a total of 6 strikeouts in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Geraldo Perdomo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 102 games (+29.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 away games (+7.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.75 Units / 17% ROI)