Giants vs D-Backs Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 7/02/2025

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants face off on July 2, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing National League West matchup. Both teams are closely matched in the standings, with the Diamondbacks sitting at 43-42 and the Giants at 45-41. The D-Backs are projected to start Merrill Kelly, who has been solid this season with a 3.49 ERA and a 7-4 win/loss record over 17 starts. Meanwhile, Landen Roupp will take the mound for the Giants, holding a respectable 3.43 ERA and a 6-5 record in 16 games.

In their last outing, the Giants managed to secure a win against the D-Backs, further tightening the competition in the division. This game marks the third in a series that could have significant implications as both teams aim to improve their standing.

Merrill Kelly’s low walk rate (6.6 BB%) could be a crucial factor against a Giants offense that has struggled, ranking 24th overall and 25th in team batting average. The D-Backs, on the other hand, boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, supported by solid power numbers, ranking 5th in home runs. This offensive depth gives Arizona a distinct advantage, especially with their best hitter performing well recently, batting .286 with an OPS of .985 over the past week.

While both pitchers are right-handers, Kelly’s performance has been more consistent compared to Roupp, whose 4.04 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression. The projections favor the Diamondbacks, who have a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, indicating confidence in their lineup to capitalize on Roupp’s vulnerabilities. With both teams vying for a crucial win, this matchup promises to be a compelling battle on the diamond.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Landen Roupp has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Extreme flyball batters like Wilmer Flores tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luis Matos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Luis Matos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starters, Merrill Kelly’s fastball velocity of 91.1 mph ranks in the 14th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Over the last 14 days, Josh Naylor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today (.317 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .336 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+15.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Pavin Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.35 Units / 34% ROI)