Get Tickets Information for Rockies vs Giants – 7/28/2024

Colorado Rockies

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies in the final game of their four-game set on July 28, 2024, at Oracle Park. San Francisco, currently 52-55, is having an average season and remains in the mix in the National League West, while Colorado (38-68) is enduring a tough campaign.

Both teams faced off yesterday, with the Giants blanking the Rockies 5-0. The Giants, who were big favorites with a -200 Moneyline, lived up to expectations. Erik Miller, the projected starter for San Francisco, has been a reliable arm out of the bullpen this season. Despite not starting a game this year, he boasts a solid 3.55 ERA and an impressive 2.97 xERA, hinting at potential untapped performance. The lefty has a knack for strikeouts, fanning 29.0% of batters faced, which could exploit the Rockies’ high strikeout rate, ranked 3rd worst in MLB.

On the opposing mound, Colorado sends Austin Gomber, who has had an inconsistent season with a 4.70 ERA. Though Gomber is known for his control, allowing just a 5.9 BB%, he faces a patient Giants offense that ranks 6th in walks drawn. However, Gomber’s tendency to limit free passes might negate this San Francisco strength.

Offensively, the Giants have been average, ranking 13th in MLB and buoyed by the recent exploits of Tyler Fitzgerald, who has been on fire over the last week. Fitzgerald has slugged six homers in his last eight games, hitting .414 with an eye-popping 1.638 OPS. On the flip side, Colorado’s Jacob Stallings has also heated up, putting up impressive numbers over the past week, but the Rockies’ offense overall has been inconsistent.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives San Francisco a 68% chance of winning, 6% higher than the betting market suggests. With the Giants’ bullpen ranked 1st and the Rockies’ floundering at 26th, the advantage leans heavily towards San Francisco. Keep an eye on the Giants to maintain their momentum and close out the series strong.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Austin Gomber has used his curveball 5.2% more often this season (22%) than he did last season (16.8%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Charlie Blackmon has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Mike Yastrzemski will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 47 games at home (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 70 games (+6.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+125/-160)
  Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 22% ROI)