Get Tickets Information for Rockies vs Giants – 7/27/2024

Colorado Rockies

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies clash once again today at Oracle Park in what is the second game of their double-header and the third game of their series. The Giants, currently 50-55, face a team further down in the standings, the Rockies, who are having a dismal season with a 38-66 record. Both teams are struggling within the National League West, but the Giants have the upper hand, especially after an 11-4 victory over the Rockies yesterday.

Starting on the mound for the Giants is right-hander Hayden Birdsong. While his spot as the #143 best starting pitcher in MLB suggests a below-average status, his 3.55 ERA this year paints a different picture. Birdsong has been relatively consistent, although his 4.14 xFIP indicates that he might have been a bit fortunate thus far. In his most recent outing on July 21, Birdsong was impressive, striking out 12 batters over 6 innings while giving up only 2 earned runs, 2 hits, and 2 walks.

On the other side, the Rockies will send Tanner Gordon to the mound. Gordon has had a rough season with a horrendous 10.61 ERA over just two starts. His xFIP of 4.84 suggests some bad luck, but his recent performance on July 12, where he allowed 6 earned runs over 3 innings, does not inspire confidence.

Offensively, the Giants will look to capitalize on Gordon’s struggles. Despite their average overall offensive ranking (15th), they’ve shown they can put up runs, as evidenced by Tyler Fitzgerald’s stellar performance over the last week, hitting .500 with 6 home runs and 11 RBIs. The Rockies, while boasting the 14th best offense, may find it challenging to get to Birdsong, especially given their high strikeout rate – a stark disadvantage against Birdsong’s strikeout prowess.

Both teams may opt to rest some regulars following the earlier game, which could impact the dynamics. However, with the Giants’ bullpen ranked 1st and the Rockies’ pen struggling at 23rd, San Francisco seems well-positioned to secure another victory. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, supports this, giving the Giants a win probability of 64%, making them a strong favorite today.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+180)
  The Colorado Rockies infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  In terms of his home runs, Michael Toglia has had positive variance on his side this year. His 44.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.1.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Hayden Birdsong has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 11.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Heliot Ramos has strong power (83rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tanner Gordon doesn’t generate many whiffs (17th percentile K%) — great news for Ramos.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Heliot Ramos has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 74 games (+9.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 68 games (+8.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+12.65 Units / 39% ROI)