Get Tickets Information for D-Backs vs Brewers – 9/22/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the National League playoff race heats up, the Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks continue their series on September 22, 2024. The Brewers, with an 88-67 record, hold a narrow lead over the D-Backs, who sit at 87-68. With both teams jockeying for postseason positioning, this matchup at American Family Field carries significant weight.

The Brewers will look to bounce back after being shut out 5-0 by the Diamondbacks on September 21. Frankie Montas is set to take the mound for Milwaukee, boasting a 4.50 ERA, which places him around average in the league. Though Montas’s record this season is 7-11, his ranking as the 93rd best pitcher out of about 350 suggests he has potential to hold his own. However, Montas has struggled with control, giving the patient D-Backs lineup, ranked 5th in walks, an opportunity to capitalize.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Jordan Montgomery. Though his 6.23 ERA is concerning, his xFIP of 4.74 indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky. Montgomery’s appearances have been split between starting and bullpen duties, and he’ll aim to stifle a Brewers offense that ranks 9th in batting average and features power threats like Willy Adames.

The Brewers are slight favorites, with a moneyline reflecting a 55% implied win probability, and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns closely, projecting their win probability at 53%. The Brewers are also projected to score 4.62 runs, compared to Arizona’s 4.53. This close matchup could hinge on bullpen performance, where Arizona holds the edge with the top-ranked bullpen compared to Milwaukee’s 16th.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Jordan Montgomery – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Jordan Montgomery’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.5-mph decline from last year’s 92.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Frankie Montas has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 4.5 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 151 games (+9.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 76 games (+26.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Pavin Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 away games (+19.30 Units / 107% ROI)