Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Yankees vs Rays – Wednesday, August 20, 2025

New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays

On August 20, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field in what shapes up to be an exciting matchup in the American League East. The Yankees currently sit in a strong position with a record of 68-57, while the Rays trail behind at 61-65, showcasing a marked disparity in performance this season.

In their previous matchup, the Yankees topped the Rays, adding to Tampa Bay’s struggles as they navigate a below average season. For this game, the Rays are projected to start Drew Rasmussen, an elite right-handed pitcher ranked 14th in MLB Power Rankings. Rasmussen boasts a stellar 2.60 ERA but is projected to pitch just 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs. His high ground ball rate might serve him well against the Yankees’ potent offense, which leads the league with 204 home runs this year.

Meanwhile, New York counters with Cam Schlitter, who has had a rocky 2025 campaign with a 3.94 ERA and a concerning 10.8 BB%. Schlitter is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing around 2.6 earned runs. However, his high walk rate could be exploited by the Rays, who are one of the least patient teams at drawing walks.

The Yankees’ offense, ranked 1st in MLB, features a hot hitter who has recorded 7 hits, 6 runs, and 2 home runs over the last week. Conversely, while the Rays offense is average, they lead the league in stolen bases, which could add another layer of challenge for Schlitter.

As the Rays seek to turn their season around, they enter this matchup with a solid moneyline of -120, indicating a close contest. The betting markets expect a tightly contested game, with a Game Total set at 8.5 runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 7 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Cameron Schlittler will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Aaron Judge generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Today, Trent Grisham is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Drew Rasmussen’s 2491-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 91st percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Yandy Diaz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 2.4% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays projected lineup ranks as the 5th-worst of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 57% ROI)