Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for White Sox vs Mets – Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Chicago White Sox

@

New York Mets

As the Chicago White Sox visit Citi Field to face the New York Mets on May 28, 2025, both teams come off yesterday’s contest, where the Mets secured a 6-4 victory. This matchup features two teams at opposite ends of the standings, with the Mets boasting a strong 34-21 record, while the White Sox languish at 17-38.

New York is projected to start Griffin Canning, who, despite ranking 147th among starting pitchers according to advanced statistics, has an impressive 2.88 ERA this season. However, his 3.65 xFIP suggests he could be due for some regression. On the other hand, Chicago’s Shane Smith has been more consistent, holding a stellar ERA of 2.36, albeit with a xFIP of 3.97, indicating a similar fate of possible regression. Both pitchers are right-handed, setting up an intriguing duel.

The Mets offense ranks 9th overall in MLB, showing significant firepower this season. Despite being 14th in batting average, they consistently find ways to score. In contrast, the White Sox sit at the bottom of the rankings, 30th in both overall offense and batting average. This stark contrast in offensive production poses a challenge for Chicago, especially against a groundball pitcher like Canning, who is adept at keeping the ball down.

While the Mets’ offense may have faced challenges earlier in the season, their recent performance suggests a turnaround, evidenced by their previous game’s success. With Canning projected to allow only 2.0 earned runs on average, the Mets look poised to take advantage of the White Sox’s struggling offense. The Game Total is currently set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a balanced expectation, but analysts predict the Mets will likely exceed their high implied team total of 4.83 runs. With Chicago remaining a notable underdog, this matchup will test both teams’ resilience as the series unfolds.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Considering that flyball pitchers hold a big advantage over flyball hitters, Shane Smith and his 43.4% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in this matchup being matched up with 2 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Griffin Canning has relied on his slider 9.7% more often this season (33.7%) than he did last season (24%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Extreme groundball batters like Juan Soto generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Smith.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 31 games (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+7.35 Units / 49% ROI)