Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Reds vs Cardinals – Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Cincinnati Reds in a pivotal matchup on September 10, 2024, at Busch Stadium. Both teams are struggling to find their footing, with the Cardinals sitting at 72-71 and the Reds at 70-75. This game marks the first in their series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum as they approach the season’s end.

In their last outings, the Cardinals faced a tough loss against the Seattle Mariners, falling 10-4 on September 8, while the Reds recently enjoyed a narrow 1-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves. The Cardinals have been inconsistent, particularly with their offense, which ranks 20th in MLB, while the Reds’ lineup has been slightly better at 16th overall. However, the Reds’ offensive struggles are evident, as they rank 26th in batting average.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start Andre Pallante, who has had an average season with a 4.07 ERA and a 6-7 record. Pallante has struggled lately, having been knocked around in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Across the field, the Reds will send Rhett Lowder, who has shown promise with a stellar 0.87 ERA in his limited appearances, although his 5.37 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate in his outings thus far.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Cardinals a slight edge with a projected win probability of 56%. Their bullpen ranks 6th in MLB, which could be crucial if the game remains close. The Cardinals are expected to score around 4.62 runs, while the Reds are projected for 4.34 runs, indicating a potentially competitive game. With both teams eager to improve their standings, this matchup could be a turning point for either side.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Rhett Lowder has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 12.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jake Fraley’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 83.9-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 80.9-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Andre Pallante’s high utilization rate of his fastball (69.8% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.5) provides evidence that Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance this year with his 23.8 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+4.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 122 games (+9.25 Units / 6% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 45 games (+9.30 Units / 21% ROI)