Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Red Sox vs Astros – Monday, August 19, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Houston Astros

As the Boston Red Sox visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros on August 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for the postseason. The Astros, sitting at 67-56, currently hold a slight edge over the Red Sox, who are 65-58. Houston’s recent success includes a solid win over the Chicago White Sox by a score of 2-0, showcasing their strong pitching and defensive capabilities. In contrast, the Red Sox fell to the Baltimore Orioles, losing 4-2.

In this series opener, Houston’s Yusei Kikuchi is projected to take the mound against Boston’s Tanner Houck. Kikuchi has had an up-and-down season, sporting a 4.49 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 6-9, but his 3.34 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and may perform better than his numbers indicate. Conversely, Houck has been more consistent, boasting a remarkable 3.01 ERA along with an 8-8 record. However, Kikuchi has excelled with a high strikeout rate of 27.4%, and he’ll be facing a Red Sox lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 4th in MLB in that category.

Offensively, the Astros rank 11th overall in MLB but are 2nd in team batting average, suggesting their ability to put up runs when it counts. The projections indicate that Houston has a favorable matchup, with an implied team total of 4.29 runs, while Boston sits at just 3.71.

Given that the Astros have a solid bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, they will be tough to overcome if Kikuchi can limit the damage early. With the stakes high in this matchup, expect a closely contested game as both teams vie for crucial victories in their playoff pursuits.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Because flyball pitchers have a big edge over flyball bats, Tanner Houck and his 51% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today’s game squaring off against 3 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Connor Wong is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s slider rate has fallen by 7.3% from last season to this one (26% to 18.7%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Trey Cabbage – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trey Cabbage has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Houston ranks as the #3 squad in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (44.1% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 113 games (+14.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 78 games (+19.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+110/-140)
  Yordan Alvarez has hit the Walks Over in 22 of his last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)