Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Rangers vs Angels – Wednesday, July 09, 2025

Texas Rangers

@

Los Angeles Angels

The upcoming matchup on July 9, 2025, features the Los Angeles Angels hosting the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium for the third game in this pivotal series. With both teams sitting under .500, each is looking to gain momentum—especially after the Rangers drubbed the Angels 13-1 in their last outing. As they head into this game, the Angels are 44-47, while the Rangers sit at 45-47.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled this season, holding a 5-6 record with an ERA of 4.68. His xERA of 3.88 suggests he has been a bit unlucky and could perform better. However, his last appearance on July 4 was uninspiring, with Hendricks allowing 3 earned runs over 5 innings. The projections indicate he will pitch around 5.4 innings today, possibly allowing 3.2 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.3 walks.

Kumar Rocker, the Rangers’ starter, has an ERA of 5.80 but is deemed an average pitcher in advanced stats. In his most recent outing, Rocker performed decently, allowing 2 earned runs in 5 innings while striking out 4 batters. Projections suggest he will pitch 5.0 innings today, predicting 2.6 earned runs and 4.9 hits allowed.

The Angels’ offense ranks 22nd overall, with a standout performance in home runs (5th). However, they struggle significantly with batting average (28th) and rank last for their stolen base attempts, indicating a lack of offensive fluidity. Contrastingly, the Rangers find themselves 26th in offensive ranking and batting average but perform better in power metrics.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, bettors should consider the strong potential for scoring, particularly with the Angels’ ability to hit home runs. The moneyline indicates a competitive matchup, and the Angels have a higher implied team total of 4.64 runs—suggesting they could outperform expectations in this high-stakes contest.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Kumar Rocker – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  With 6 bats who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Kumar Rocker figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Kyle Hendricks’s 85.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.8-mph decline from last season’s 87.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Jo Adell has been hot lately, notching 3 home runs in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 12th-best batter in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 games (+12.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 88 games (+15.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Evan Carter has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.15 Units / 38% ROI)