Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Cardinals vs Twins – Sunday, August 25, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 25, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of a competitive stretch. The Twins currently sit with a record of 72-57, showcasing a solid season, while the Cardinals are slightly below .500 at 64-65, marking an average year. The Twins are looking to build on their recent successes, having played well in their last series, while the Cardinals aim to turn the tide after a disappointing outing.

In this matchup, the Twins will send right-hander Zebby Matthews to the mound. Matthews has had a modest season, with a 1-1 record and a respectable ERA of 3.60 over just two starts. However, his xFIP of 5.28 suggests he may have been fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who boasts a better year with an 8-7 record and an impressive ERA of 3.39 across 25 starts. Fedde’s xFIP of 4.19 indicates he too may have benefited from some good fortune but remains a capable pitcher.

Offensively, the Twins rank as the 6th best in MLB, bolstered by their ability to hit for power, ranking 8th in home runs. In contrast, the Cardinals’ offense is more average, sitting at 17th overall, and they struggle to hit for power, ranking 22nd in home runs. This disparity in offensive firepower could be critical, especially given that the Twins have an implied team total of 4.45 runs, which is higher than the Cardinals’ 4.05.

With the Twins in a good position to capitalize on their home field advantage and superior offensive metrics, they may be poised to secure a victory in this pivotal interleague showdown.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Erick Fedde has averaged 93.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Tommy Pham is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Today, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.8% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Matt Wallner has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year’s 91.9-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected lineup today (.313 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .325 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+13.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-170)
  Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 33% ROI)