Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Braves vs Mets – Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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New York Mets

On June 25, 2025, the New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves in a significant National League East matchup at Citi Field. The Mets currently sit at 46-34, enjoying a strong season, while the Braves, with a record of 37-41, are struggling to find their footing. The pressure is on for the Mets to bounce back after a disappointing 7-4 loss to the Braves just a day prior.

Clay Holmes takes the mound for the Mets, and despite a recent uneventful start where he allowed three earned runs over five innings, he has a solid 3.04 ERA this season. Ranked as the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has demonstrated his worth with a 7-4 record across 15 starts. However, projections indicate that he may be due for a slight regression, as his xFIP of 3.82 suggests he has been lucky in some aspects. Holmes is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings today, aiming to minimize his unusually high walk rate from his last game.

On the other side, Didier Fuentes is expected to start for the Braves. The young right-hander has had a tough outing this year, evidenced by his 7.20 ERA. While projections hint at potential improvement, given his xFIP of 4.54, Fuentes faces a daunting challenge against the Mets’ offense. The Mets rank 6th in MLB for batting, despite their mediocre team batting average of 20th. They’ve excelled in power, ranking 7th in home runs, which could spell trouble for Fuentes.

The Mets enter this game favored at -150, with a high team total of 5.17 runs projected. With the Braves struggling offensively and their bullpen rated 9th, the odds favor New York to claim a much-needed victory and even the series.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Bats such as Ozzie Albies with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Clay Holmes who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a significant advantage over flyball bats, Clay Holmes and his 56% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today’s matchup being matched up with 3 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+13.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Tyrone Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 38% ROI)