Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Angels vs Yankees – Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

New York Yankees

On June 18, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Angels at Yankee Stadium in a highly anticipated matchup. Both teams are looking to secure a key victory, with the Yankees sitting at 42-30 this season, while the Angels are struggling at 35-37. In their last game, the Angels fell to the Yankees, further highlighting their challenges this season.

The Yankees boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, and their projected starter, Ryan Yarbrough, is set to face off against Jack Kochanowicz. Yarbrough has had a decent season, holding a 3-1 record and a solid 3.96 ERA. Although ranked 149th among starting pitchers, he has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his xERA of 3.38, suggesting he could perform even better moving forward. However, his projections indicate he might allow 3.0 earned runs and 5.3 hits today, which could be a concern.

In contrast, Kochanowicz is in the midst of a rough patch, with a 3-8 record and a troubling 5.53 ERA. His projections are equally grim, forecasting 3.3 earned runs and 5.9 hits allowed, along with a high walk rate of 10.4%. This could play into the Yankees’ hands, as their patient offense leads MLB in walks.

The Yankees’ power hitting, ranked 2nd in home runs, faces a challenge against Kochanowicz, who is a high-groundball pitcher. However, the Yankees’ elite patience at the plate could exploit Kochanowicz’s control issues. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair. With a moneyline of -210, the Yankees are favored, indicating strong confidence in their ability to build on their recent success.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all SPs, Jack Kochanowicz’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 80th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Schanuel stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Scott Kingery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Scott Kingery hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-215)
  Ryan Yarbrough is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme flyball batters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-250)
  The New York Yankees projected offense profiles as the 2nd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.07 Units / 33% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+210)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 games (+11.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Zach Neto has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+17.45 Units / 39% ROI)