Get the Latest Score Updates for Orioles vs Twins – Sunday September 29, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

@

Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off on September 29, 2024, at Target Field, the stakes are high for the Orioles, who are enjoying a strong season with a 90-71 record. Meanwhile, the Twins, sitting at 82-79, have had an average year. This American League matchup marks the third game in the series, with the Orioles having taken the previous contest with a decisive 9-2 victory.

On the mound, the Twins will rely on Bailey Ober, ranked the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a solid 12-8 record and a 3.94 ERA, Ober’s peripheral stats indicate he’s been unlucky this season, suggesting potential for improvement. However, his high fly-ball rate could be a concern against the Orioles’ powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in home runs with 233 this season.

For Baltimore, Albert Suarez will get the nod. Despite a respectable 3.74 ERA, his 4.50 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate and may face challenges against a Twins offense ranked 11th overall. The Orioles’ lineup, featuring Gunnar Henderson with 37 home runs and a .282 batting average, presents a significant threat to Ober and the Twins’ bullpen, which ranks 24th in MLB.

The Twins are favored with a -140 moneyline, reflecting a 56% implied win probability, yet THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a 53% chance of winning, highlighting potential value for bettors. Baltimore’s offense, ranked 6th, could exploit Minnesota’s pitching vulnerabilities, making this a close and intriguing matchup. With both teams having something to prove, this game promises to be an exciting end to the series.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Albert Suarez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Albert Suarez has a reverse platoon split and is stuck being matched up with 6 same-handed bats in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Cedric Mullins will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+110)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order grades out as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starters, Bailey Ober’s fastball velocity of 91.2 mph is in the 16th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Royce Lewis has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .233 figure is deflated compared to his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 102 games (+15.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+17.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-125/-105)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)