Get the Latest Score Updates for Braves vs Mets – Saturday July 27, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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New York Mets

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are set for their third game of the series at Citi Field on July 27, 2024, in what continues to be an intriguing National League East matchup. Both teams have enjoyed above-average seasons, with the Mets holding a 55-48 record and the Braves closely trailing at 54-48. The Mets took the victory in their last game on July 26, defeating the Braves 8-4.

On the mound for the Mets will be Tylor Megill, a right-handed pitcher who has had his share of struggles this season, boasting a 5.08 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.96 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could show improvement. Megill’s projected stats for today are a mixed bag; while he is expected to allow 2.2 earned runs and strike out 6.1 batters, he also projects to give up 4.4 hits and 1.6 walks, indicating control issues.

The Braves counter with right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach, who holds a 4.62 ERA and has demonstrated occasional brilliance, albeit with a 3-5 win-loss record. Schwellenbach’s xFIP of 3.74 is a strong indicator that he has been pitching better than his ERA suggests. Despite this, he’s expected to allow 2.4 earned runs and 4.8 hits, while striking out 5.1 batters.

The Mets’ offense ranks 7th in MLB, thanks in part to Francisco Lindor, who has been red-hot over the last week with a .290 batting average and five home runs. Their power ranks 4th in home runs, and that could be a key factor against Schwellenbach. The Braves offense, ranked 18th, will lean heavily on Marcell Ozuna, who has been stellar with a .375 batting average and three home runs over the last seven games.

Both bullpens show different levels of effectiveness; the Mets rank 19th while the Braves are 7th. This close matchup is reflected in the betting markets, with the Mets’ moneyline set at -125, implying a 53% win probability, aligning with projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

With these factors in mind, the Mets appear to have a slight edge, especially considering their recent offensive surge and the potential for Megill to outperform his season stats. Expect a closely contested game, but one where the Mets might just have the upper hand.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+110)
  Spencer Schwellenbach has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Ignacio Alvarez – Over/Under Hits
  Ignacio Alvarez is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Tylor Megill has added a cutter to his repertoire this season and has thrown it 14.9% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Francisco Lindor has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 93.1-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect negative regression for the New York Mets offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 91 games (+14.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 94 games (+24.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 games (+10.40 Units / 69% ROI)