Get the Injury Report for Orioles vs Blue Jays – Thursday August 8th, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Baltimore Orioles visit the Toronto Blue Jays on August 8, 2024, both teams head into this critical matchup with contrasting seasons. Baltimore currently sits atop the American League East with a solid 68-47 record, while Toronto struggles with a below-average 52-62 mark. After last night’s game, where the Orioles triumphed over the Blue Jays 7-3, the stakes are high for Toronto, who is eager to find a way to turn their season around.

On the mound, the matchup features Kevin Gausman for Toronto, who has been consistently above average this season. Gausman is ranked as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB, and while he has posted a 4.56 ERA, his 4.04 xFIP indicates that he might have been a bit unlucky and could improve. He is projected to pitch a standard 5.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out around 6.5 batters. However, he also carries a high flyball rate of 36%, which could spell trouble against the powerful Orioles offense that has already belted 157 home runs, ranking 1st in the league.

Dean Kremer takes the mound for Baltimore, and while he has struggled this year with a 4-8 record and a 4.39 ERA, his projections suggest he may have benefited from some good fortune. Facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks 27th in home runs and has found it difficult to produce power, Kremer might have the upper hand.

The projections reflect a balanced contest, with the Blue Jays’ implied total set at a solid 4.45 runs and the Orioles at 4.55 runs. With both teams looking to capitalize on their strengths, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle on the diamond.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Gunnar Henderson projects as the 18th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Kevin Gausman’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (59.3 compared to 50.8% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.3-mph now compared to just 92.1-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (20.4 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 36 games (+19.25 Units / 49% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 49 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)