Get the Injury Report for Marlins vs Twins – Tuesday September 24th, 2024

Miami Marlins

@

Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins prepare to face off on September 24, 2024, at Target Field, both teams find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum this season. The Twins, with a record of 81-75, are having an above-average season and remain in the hunt for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Marlins, at 57-99, have been enduring a challenging year and are out of postseason contention.

Bailey Ober is set to take the mound for the Twins. Ranked as the 31st best starting pitcher, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ober has been a reliable asset this year, boasting a 12-7 record with a 3.84 ERA. His 3.18 xERA suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, indicative of potential for even stronger performances. In contrast, Ryan Weathers will start for the Marlins and is considered below average; his 3.94 ERA does provide a modest silver lining in an otherwise difficult season.

The Twins, listed as big favorites with a moneyline of -235, are projected to score 5.06 runs, reflecting their 11th best offense in MLB. The Marlins, on the other hand, rank as the 29th best offensive unit, struggling in both power and consistency. Despite this, Jake Burger has been a bright spot for them, posting a .318 batting average and a 1.148 OPS over the last week.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Twins a 64% win probability, slightly lower than the betting market suggests, while the Marlins’ 36% projection is 4% higher than the market’s implied odds. This indicates potential value for bettors willing to take a chance on the struggling Marlins, given the enticing odds. As these teams kick off their series, expect the Twins to capitalize on their strengths while the Marlins look to disrupt the odds.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)
  Ryan Weathers projects for 3.03 earned runs in this game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Nick Fortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Nick Fortes’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 91.2-mph mark last season has dropped off to 86.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bailey Ober has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.4% more often this year (61.7%) than he did last season (54.3%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  As it relates to his home runs, Willi Castro has had some very poor luck this year. His 11.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.7.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Today, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.7% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 98 games (+11.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+12.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 81% ROI)