Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)-105
As the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians face off in the second game of their double-header on August 9, 2024, the stakes are high. Both teams are in the thick of the American League Central race, with the Guardians holding a slight edge in the standings at 67-48 compared to the Twins’ 64-50 record. This matchup is particularly important as the Twins aim to bounce back from a disappointing 8-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs in their last outing.
On the mound for the Twins will be Louie Varland, who has struggled this season with a 0-4 record and an ERA of 6.58. However, his xFIP of 4.20 suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward. Varland’s last start on June 11 was a bright spot, as he pitched five innings without allowing any earned runs. In contrast, the Guardians will counter with Alex Cobb, who has had a better season, ranking 72nd among MLB starting pitchers. Cobb’s last outing, however, was a disappointment, as he allowed five earned runs in just two innings.
Offensively, the Twins boast the 6th best lineup in MLB, with a strong batting average and home run production. Key to their success has been Willi Castro, their best hitter this season. Meanwhile, Jose Ramirez continues to lead the Guardians, contributing significantly to their average offense, which ranks 14th in the league.
Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Guardians slightly favored at -115 and the Twins at -105. The projections suggest a tight game, with the Guardians expected to score around 4.63 runs while the Twins are projected for 4.05 runs. With both teams needing a win to maintain their playoff hopes, this matchup promises to be a compelling showdown at Target Field.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Jose Ramirez is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Minnesota (#1-worst on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- David Fry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Today, David Fry is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.6% rate (90th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-105)The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-275)Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.311 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .325 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+13.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-115)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 99 games (+8.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.65 Units / 39% ROI)