Get the Giants vs Guardians Injury Report – July 07, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Cleveland Guardians

Baseball fans are in for an intriguing matchup on July 7, 2024, as the Cleveland Guardians host the San Francisco Giants at Progressive Field. This game is the third in the interleague series between these two clubs. The Guardians are currently enjoying a great season, boasting a 55-32 record, and are pushing hard for a playoff spot. Conversely, the Giants are sitting at 44-46, reflecting an average season so far.

Yesterday’s game saw Cleveland narrowly edge out San Francisco with a 5-4 victory. The Guardians had an implied win probability of 54% (-130 Moneyline) indicating the game would be close, and they did not disappoint. The Giants, with a Moneyline of +110 and a 46% implied win probability, fell just short in what was a tight contest.

On the mound for Cleveland will be the veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco, currently ranked as the 299th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Carrasco has struggled this season with a 5.21 ERA, but his 4.25 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could see better days ahead. Betting markets do not seem optimistic about Carrasco’s chances, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicates that it projects a close game.

San Francisco counters with Hayden Birdsong, another right-hander. Birdsong comes in with a 4.66 ERA over just two starts. Indicators such as his 6.02 xERA hint that his performance might regress, as he has been somewhat fortunate thus far. However, Birdsong’s latest outing saw him being effective, pitching five innings with two earned runs and five strikeouts.

Offensively, the Guardians have the edge. They rank 12th in team batting average and are in the top 10 for home runs and stolen bases. Their lineup is powered by Jose Ramirez, who has been stellar this season, contributing 23 home runs and 67 runs. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense ranks 19th in home runs and is dead last in stolen bases. Their key contributor has been Matt Chapman, whose solid all-around play continues to stabilize an otherwise middling lineup.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, with San Francisco’s ranked as the 1st best in MLB and Cleveland’s closely behind at 3rd. This game could come down to which team’s bullpen can hold firm in the late innings.

While the betting markets lean slightly toward Cleveland, THE BAT X projects the Giants have a better chance than implied by the odds. With both teams looking to capitalize on their strengths, fans should expect another closely contested game.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+110)
  Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  LaMonte Wade Jr.’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 90.7-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 83.1-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Heliot Ramos has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to the average starter, Carlos Carrasco has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -9.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  San Francisco’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Daniel Schneemann, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 83 games (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)