Get the Angels vs White Sox Injury Report – Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are set to host the Los Angeles Angels at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 25, 2024, in an American League matchup. Both teams have endured challenging seasons, with the White Sox holding a dismal 37-120 record and the Angels not faring much better at 63-94. While neither team is in playoff contention, the game still offers intriguing betting angles and matchups.

The White Sox, coming off a rough season, will send Davis Martin to the mound. Martin, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this year with a 0-5 Win/Loss record and a 4.27 ERA. Despite being ranked as the #249 best starting pitcher, projections suggest he could pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs while striking out five batters. However, his tendency to allow hits and walks could be problematic.

Opposing him is lefty Jose Suarez for the Angels. Suarez’s season has been rocky, with a 1-2 Win/Loss record and a concerning 6.08 ERA. Yet, his xFIP of 4.39 indicates some unfortunate luck, suggesting potential improvement. Projections have him pitching 5.1 innings, also allowing 2.6 earned runs and five strikeouts. The White Sox’s low-walk offense may not capitalize on Suarez’s control issues, potentially giving him an edge.

Offensively, the White Sox rank dead last in MLB across several categories, including team batting average and home runs. Meanwhile, the Angels’ offense isn’t significantly better, ranking 26th overall but boasting a respectable 10th in stolen bases. Both bullpens are among the worst in MLB, with the Angels ranked 30th and the White Sox 27th.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Angels slightly favored at -115 and an implied win probability of 51%. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees this as an evenly matched contest, projecting a 50% win probability for both teams. With both offenses struggling, the focus will be on which starting pitcher can outperform expectations.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  In his previous start, Jose Suarez was in good form and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Mickey Moniak’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 88-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 83.5-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Mickey Moniak pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Lenyn Sosa has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .264 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+100)
  The Chicago White Sox projected batting order profiles as the worst of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)