Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
(-110/-110)+100
The Chicago White Sox host the Los Angeles Angels in an American League matchup in Chicago on September 25, 2024. Both teams have had forgettable seasons, with the White Sox sitting at 37-120 and the Angels at 63-94. The White Sox’s struggles have been evident on both sides of the ball, ranking last in MLB in offense and fielding one of the league’s weakest bullpens, currently 27th-best. The Angels don’t fare much better, possessing the worst bullpen and ranking 26th offensively. Despite these challenges, the stakes are still present for both teams as they look to close out the season on a positive note.
On the mound, the White Sox will start right-hander Davis Martin, who has a 0-5 record and an ERA of 4.27 this season. Martin, ranked #249 among approximately 350 MLB pitchers according to Power Rankings, is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs. Meanwhile, the Angels counter with lefty Jose Suarez, who holds an ERA of 6.08 and a 1-2 record. Despite a dismal ERA, Suarez’s xFIP of 4.39 suggests he’s been slightly unlucky, hinting at better performances ahead.
The White Sox’s offense is projected to score 4.56 runs on average, which is high considering their current form, while the Angels are projected to slightly edge them with 4.65 runs. The batter to watch for the White Sox is Korey Lee, who has posted a .375 batting average and a 1.250 OPS over his last four games. For the Angels, Jack Lopez has been hot, boasting a .474 batting average over his last six games.
According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the White Sox have a slight edge with a 52% projected win probability despite the betting markets favoring the Angels with a 52% implied win probability. With both teams looking to end their challenging seasons with some momentum, this game promises to be a closely contested affair.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)In his previous start, Jose Suarez was in good form and conceded 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Kevin Pillar’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90.6-mph EV last season has fallen to 87.3-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Kevin Pillar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Lenyn Sosa has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .265 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .323 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- The Chicago White Sox have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the seasonExplain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+660/-1300)Andrew Benintendi has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 13 games (+8.50 Units / 65% ROI)