Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Royals vs Guardians – Monday, August 26, 2024

Kansas City Royals

@

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Kansas City Royals on August 26, 2024, in the second game of a double-header. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Guardians sitting at 75-56 and the Royals at 73-58. The Guardians currently hold a stronger position in the American League Central, while the Royals are looking to close the gap.

In their previous matchup on August 25, 2024, the Guardians defeated the Texas Rangers 4-2, showcasing their ability to win tight games. Meanwhile, the Royals struggled, suffering an 11-3 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. This stark contrast in recent performance could play a critical role in today’s game.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start Logan Allen, who has had an inconsistent year with a 5.56 ERA and a below-average strikeout rate of 19.2%. However, his 4.65 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. In his last start on August 5, 2024, Allen pitched five innings, allowing just two earned runs.

Alec Marsh will take the ball for the Royals, and while his 4.71 ERA is more palatable, his strikeout projection is concerning at just 3.8 strikeouts per game. Both pitchers face offenses that have been somewhat average this season, but the Guardians’ lineup, led by Jose Ramirez, has been bolstered in recent weeks by standout performances from Jhonkensy Noel, who has been hitting well above .300 over his last seven games.

With the Guardians enjoying a favorable moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 4.82 runs, projections suggest they will score around 4.88 runs today. The Royals, on the other hand, are projected for 4.58 runs, putting them at a disadvantage. Given the recent form and home-field advantage, the Guardians appear poised for another win in this critical matchup.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Alec Marsh – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Marsh to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (15th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.278) suggests that Freddy Fermin has experienced some positive variance this year with his .334 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  The Kansas City Royals have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Allen in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Will Brennan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Will Brennan’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 6th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-140)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 49 games at home (+8.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Bo Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+17.40 Units / 109% ROI)