Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Phillies vs D-Backs – Friday, August 09, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies prepare for their rematch on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for playoff positioning, with the Phillies solidly among the contenders. The Diamondbacks, sitting at 63-53, have been battling to stay competitive and are having an above-average season, while the Phillies boast a record of 69-46, indicating their great form this year. In their previous encounter, the Diamondbacks fell to the Phillies 6-4, a result that certainly stings as they look to bounce back in this second game of the series.

Tonight’s matchup features Ryne Nelson on the mound for the Diamondbacks, who has been struggling with consistency. Nelson ranks as the 166th best starting pitcher in MLB and projects to allow approximately 3.1 earned runs over 5.2 innings. His low walk rate may give the Diamondbacks a slight advantage against a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in walks this season.

Opposing him, Zack Wheeler will take the hill for the Phillies coming off a complete game shutout in his last start on August 4. Wheeler, who is recognized as the 8th best starting pitcher, carries a solid 2.77 ERA and projects to allow 2.6 earned runs in about 5.6 innings of work. This combination of elite performance makes him a tough challenge for the Diamondbacks’ offense, which ranks 5th overall.

Despite the Diamondbacks’ impressive overall offense, they face a daunting task against a strong Phillies team that has been lighting up the scoreboard, with projections suggesting they may score an average of 5.40 runs. With the Diamondbacks needing a win to regain momentum and the Phillies looking to solidify their standing, this game promises to be an exciting matchup with significant implications for both sides.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starters, Zack Wheeler’s fastball spin rate of 2425 rpm is in the 84th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Johan Rojas has put up a .256 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 2nd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Ryne Nelson projects for 3.03 earned runs in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  In today’s game, Joc Pederson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.3% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 56 games (+16.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 97 games (+14.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+550/-1000)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 27 games (+31.50 Units / 117% ROI)