Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Nationals vs Padres – Monday, June 23, 2025

Washington Nationals

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Washington Nationals on June 23, 2025, they are riding high after a narrow victory over the Nationals the previous day, winning 3-2. The Padres are 42-35 this season and are effectively positioned to capitalize on the weaknesses of the struggling Nationals, who find themselves at 32-46.

San Diego will send right-hander Stephen Kolek to the mound, who has been decent with a 3-2 record and a solid 3.59 ERA. Although he’s ranked as the 192nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his recent performances suggest he could exploit a low-strikeout Nationals offense that ranks 4th least in strikeouts. Kolek is projected to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing about 2.5 earned runs today, which is considered above-average, though he does struggle with high hit rates.

Opposing him will be the left-handed Mitchell Parker, who has had his own struggles. With a 4-8 record and a 4.59 ERA, Parker is also among the less effective pitchers in the league. He is known as a flyball pitcher, and given that the Padres rank 27th in home runs this year, they may struggle to capitalize on his weaknesses.

While the Padres’ offense currently ranks 21st in MLB, their advanced projections indicate a potential upside against Parker. They may not be a power-hitting team, but their recent play suggests they can still put runs on the board. Conversely, the Nationals’ bullpen ranks 21st in the league, setting the stage for San Diego’s hitters to exploit any potential late-game opportunities.

With San Diego favored at -175, the Padres hold a strong implied team total of 4.79 runs against Washington’s low projection of 3.71 runs. As the teams clash, it will be interesting to see if the Padres can build on their momentum or if the Nationals can turn the tide.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Mitchell Parker’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (54.7 compared to 48.6% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Stephen Kolek’s 2197-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 25th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jake Cronenworth may have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+580/-1100)
  CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+13.90 Units / 232% ROI)