Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Mets vs D-Backs – Thursday, August 29, 2024

New York Mets

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the New York Mets on August 29, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the standings. The Diamondbacks, boasting a record of 76-57, are having a strong season and sit in a favorable position for playoff contention. In contrast, the Mets, at 69-64, are having an above-average season but are struggling to keep pace.

In their last matchup on August 28, the Diamondbacks emerged victorious with an 8-5 win, further showcasing their potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB. This offensive prowess is led by Corbin Carroll, who has been a consistent contributor throughout the season, having played in 129 games and recording 96 runs and 17 home runs. Recently, Pavin Smith has also been on a hot streak, hitting .667 with a 1.417 OPS over the last week.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks are projected to start Ryne Nelson, who has had an average season with a 4.29 ERA and a 9-6 record. In his last outing, Nelson pitched well, going 6 innings with only 2 earned runs. He faces the Mets’ David Peterson, who has been effective this season with a standout ERA of 2.85, although projections suggest he might regress. Both pitchers are expected to allow around 5.6 hits, which could set the stage for a high-scoring affair.

Despite the close odds, with the Diamondbacks holding a moneyline of -120 and the Mets at +100, projections indicate a slight edge for Arizona, suggesting they could score an average of 4.71 runs compared to the Mets’ 4.76. With both teams vying for momentum, this matchup promises to be a competitive one as the season heats up.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Because groundball hitters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, David Peterson (49.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Jose Iglesias has been lucky this year, putting up a .358 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .288 — a .070 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the New York Mets offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-180)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ryne Nelson has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.4% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Corbin Carroll is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 100 games (+22.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 84 games (+9.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.30 Units / 34% ROI)