Cleveland Guardians
New York Mets
(-105/-115)-170
As the New York Mets prepare to face the Cleveland Guardians on August 6, 2025, at Citi Field, both teams are looking to assert their dominance in this Interleague matchup. The Mets currently sit with a record of 63-51, showing signs of a solid season, while the Guardians trail with a 58-55 record, reflecting an average performance thus far. This game marks the third in their current series.
In their last game, the Mets put on an impressive display, led by their best hitter who registered 10 RBIs and three home runs over the past week. Meanwhile, the Guardians have struggled offensively, ranked 27th overall in MLB. Their batting average of .230 is the worst in the league, highlighting a significant challenge for them moving forward.
On the mound, the Mets will send out David Peterson, a left-handed pitcher with a solid ERA of 2.83 this season and a Power Ranking of 117th among pitchers in MLB. While Peterson has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his 3.63 xFIP, he still projects to deliver an average outing of 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs. Conversely, Gavin Williams of the Guardians, ranked 76th, has been above average with a 3.33 ERA. However, he struggles with walks, a concern against a Mets offense that ranks 6th in drawing free passes.
Given the matchup, the Mets appear to have the advantage, especially considering their higher implied team total of 4.47 runs, compared to the Guardians’ low 3.53. With the Mets’ strong offensive capabilities against a struggling Guardians lineup, they are positioned well to take this game.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+150)Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)Carlos Santana’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.6-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 81-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, David Peterson (51.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Cleveland’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Despite posting a .367 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Juan Soto has experienced some negative variance given the .040 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .407.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-170)The 3rd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.