Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Dodgers vs Phillies – July 09, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers are set to square off in an exciting National League matchup on July 9, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. This game features two of the best teams in the league with the Phillies boasting a 58-32 record and the Dodgers not far behind at 55-36. Both teams are having exceptional seasons, but Philadelphia holds a slight edge in the standings.

Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies. Wheeler has been exceptional this season with a 9-4 record, 2.74 ERA, and ranks as the 9th-best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Although his 3.49 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat lucky, his underlying metrics show he’s still elite. Meanwhile, Bobby Miller will start for the Dodgers. Miller has shown promise but has struggled with a 6.12 ERA, though his 4.31 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Miller’s control issues (13.8 BB%) could be magnified against a Phillies offense that ranks 5th in drawing walks, potentially giving Philadelphia an advantage.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 5th in MLB this season and have been particularly strong in batting average (3rd) and home runs (7th). Trea Turner has been red-hot, with a .360 batting average and 1.225 OPS over the last week. On the other side, the Dodgers boast the best offense in MLB, leading in overall rank and placing 3rd in home runs. Will Smith has been on a tear recently, sporting a .300 batting average and an impressive 1.367 OPS in the past week.

The Phillies’ bullpen is ranked 3rd in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, outperforming their year-to-date rank, which underscores their recent effectiveness. The Dodgers, with their 7th-ranked bullpen, are also solid but not quite as strong.

Philadelphia enters this game as a -140 favorite, translating to an implied win probability of 56%, while the Dodgers have a 44% implied win probability at +120. The Phillies’ implied team total of 4.81 runs contrasts with the Dodgers’ 4.19, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair given the game total of 9.0 runs. Expect a thrilling contest as these top-tier teams clash in what could be a preview of a postseason showdown.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Bobby Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Bobby Miller’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this season (97 mph) below where it was last season (98.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Cavan Biggio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cavan Biggio’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88.1-mph mark last year has dropped off to 82.2-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Freddie Freeman has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Compared to the average hurler, Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 9.7 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-200)
  Trea Turner has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .335 BA is considerably higher than his .278 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 44 games at home (+18.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+340/-500)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 27 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)