Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Reds vs Blue Jays Match – Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Cincinnati Reds visit the Toronto Blue Jays on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for relevance in the standings. The Blue Jays sit with a record of 58-67, struggling through a below-average season, while the Reds are marginally better at 61-64, marking an average campaign. The stakes are high, especially after the Reds bested the Blue Jays 6-3 in their last encounter just a day prior.

Jose Berrios is projected to take the mound for Toronto. Despite being ranked 148th among approximately 350 pitchers in MLB, Berrios has shown flashes of brilliance this season, boasting a solid 3.85 ERA. His last performance was impressive, going 7 innings with only 1 earned run allowed. However, his high hit projection of 5.3 today may pose a challenge against a Reds offense that ranks 15th overall but has struggled with consistency.

On the other hand, Carson Spiers will start for Cincinnati. Spiers has had a rough go, ranking among the least effective pitchers in MLB. His last outing saw him surrendering 8 earned runs in just 5 innings, which raises concerns about his ability to keep the Blue Jays at bay. The projections suggest that Spiers could allow an average of 2.7 earned runs today, which is below average.

Interestingly, the projections favor the Blue Jays to score 4.64 runs, a significant boost from their overall offensive struggles. With a current moneyline set at -120, there appears to be value in betting on Toronto, especially considering their performance metrics that suggest they might outperform expectations against a struggling pitcher like Spiers.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Carson Spiers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Carson Spiers is expected to ring up an average of 4.1 strikeouts in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jake Fraley’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 83.9-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 71.8-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Jose Berrios has added a slider to his repertoire this season and has thrown it 29.3% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Cincinnati (#1-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Joey Loperfido – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Joey Loperfido hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 69 games (+18.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 65 of their last 113 games (+10.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.50 Units / 41% ROI)