Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Red Sox vs Orioles Match – Wednesday, April 02, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox on April 2, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the American League East. The Orioles, currently holding a 3-2 record, are off to a strong start this season, while the Red Sox sit at a disappointing 1-4. In their last matchup, the Orioles emerged victorious, continuing their upward trend, while the Red Sox struggle to find their footing.

On the mound, Zach Eflin is projected to start for the Orioles. Eflin has been effective this season with a 3.00 ERA, although his 5.31 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, indicating that he should keep the game close. Meanwhile, Garrett Crochet takes the hill for the Red Sox. Crochet, ranked as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts a solid 3.60 ERA, but his 4.28 xFIP indicates he, too, may face challenges moving forward. His projections show he could allow 1.8 earned runs and 3.9 hits.

Offensively, the Orioles have a potent lineup, ranking 9th overall in MLB and 5th in team batting average, showcasing their ability to generate runs. The Red Sox, conversely, have struggled, ranking 47th in overall offense and 45th in batting average, which has contributed to their poor start this season.

With the current Game Total set at 8.0 runs, and the Orioles’ moneyline at +100, betting markets indicate this game could be tightly contested. The projections suggest a slight edge for the Orioles, who have shown more promise early in the season. Given their offensive strength and Eflin’s solid performance, Baltimore looks to capitalize on the Red Sox’s struggles and secure a crucial win.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Tallying 14.1 outs per start since the start of last season on average, Garrett Crochet falls in the 7th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1500/-50000)
  This season, there has been a decline in Rafael Devers’s quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.48 ft/sec last year to 22.24 ft/sec currently.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #5 group of hitters in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Zach Eflin must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 63% of the time, placing in the 89th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.2) may lead us to conclude that Cedric Mullins has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his 23.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 81 of their last 152 games (+15.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 56 away games (+6.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+205/-280)
  Ramon Urias has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)