Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Giants vs Royals Match – Sunday, September 22, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals host the San Francisco Giants at Kauffman Stadium on September 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in different positions this season. The Royals, with an 82-73 record, are having an above-average season and are still in the hunt for a postseason berth. Meanwhile, the Giants, sitting at 76-79, have had an average season and are likely on the outside looking in for playoff contention.

In this interleague matchup, Seth Lugo will take the mound for Kansas City. Lugo, a right-handed pitcher, has been solid this season with a 16-8 record and a commendable 3.05 ERA. However, his 3.85 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far. On the other side, the Giants will counter with Blake Snell, an elite left-hander ranked 15th among starting pitchers. Despite a modest 4-3 record, Snell’s peripheral stats, including a 2.54 FIP, indicate he’s been unlucky and could perform even better moving forward.

The Royals’ offense ranks 14th in MLB, with a notable 7th place in batting average, presenting a balanced attack. In contrast, the Giants’ offense has struggled, ranking 21st overall and in batting average. This disparity in offensive performance could be a crucial factor, especially given that the Royals are among the teams with the least strikeouts, potentially neutralizing Snell’s high strikeout ability.

In terms of bullpen support, the Royals rank 11th, while the Giants boast a stronger unit at 5th. Betting markets project a close game, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Giants a slight edge with a 53% chance of winning. While both teams have low implied team totals of 3.50 runs, the Giants are projected to outscore the Royals, averaging 4.14 runs compared to Kansas City’s 3.66.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Blake Snell has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 7.0 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 4th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Seth Lugo’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (56.4% vs. 48.2% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.9-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect weaker performance for the Kansas City Royals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 away games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)