Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Cardinals vs Yankees Match – Friday, August 30, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on August 30, 2024, they sit comfortably in the playoff picture with a record of 78-56, showcasing a strong season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are hovering around .500 at 67-67, indicating an average campaign. This matchup promises to be intriguing, especially given the Yankees’ offensive prowess, ranking 1st in MLB this season, along with their impressive 149 home runs.

In their last outing, the Yankees had a strong performance, and with Marcus Stroman projected to start, they look to maintain momentum. Stroman has had a decent season with a 3.88 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 9-6, but advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs, though his tendency to give up hits—averaging 5.4—could be a concern, especially against a flyball pitcher like Erick Fedde.

Fedde, who has been more effective this season with a 3.31 ERA, faces a daunting task. The Yankees’ lineup could capitalize on his high flyball percentage, which may lead to some extra-base hits. The projections indicate the Yankees are expected to score around 5.10 runs, while the Cardinals are projected for a modest 4.01 runs.

With the Yankees as significant betting favorites, holding a moneyline of -170, they are expected to leverage their offensive strength against a Cardinals squad that ranks 22nd in home runs. This first game of the series could set the tone for what promises to be an exciting matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Erick Fedde must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 69.6% of the time, placing in the 97th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Batters such as Nolan Arenado with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Marcus Stroman who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Marcus Stroman’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this year (89.4 mph) below where it was last year (90.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Alex Verdugo is penciled in 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-185)
  The New York Yankees projected batting order profiles as the strongest of the day in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 102 games (+16.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+6.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+16.40 Units / 21% ROI)