Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Cardinals vs Royals Match – Friday, May 16, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals at Kauffman Stadium on May 16, 2025, both teams are looking to assert themselves in a tight interleague matchup. The Royals enter the game with a record of 25-20, while the Cardinals sit slightly behind at 24-20. Both squads are having solid seasons, but this game carries added importance as it marks the first contest in the series. Kansas City recently struggled, suffering a defeat in their last game, while St. Louis is riding a wave of momentum after a recent win.

On the mound, Cole Ragans is projected to start for the Royals. With an impressive ranking as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Ragans has shown promise despite a mixed record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.20. His 2.24 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and is likely to improve. Ragans projects to allow just 2.2 earned runs today while striking out an average of 6.9 batters, although he does have some worrying stats in terms of hits and walks allowed.

Facing him will be Andre Pallante for the Cardinals, who has a more modest reputation as an average pitcher. Pallante has a record of 3-2 with an ERA of 4.36, but his 3.71 xFIP indicates he might have room for improvement as well. However, he does struggle with strikeouts, projecting just 3.2 for this game, which could be beneficial for the Royals’ low-strikeout offense.

In terms of offense, the Cardinals rank 9th overall and 6th in batting average, while the Royals are struggling at 27th overall and 30th in home runs. With Kansas City’s lack of power, they will need to capitalize on the groundball tendency of Pallante, who fits their style well. The Royals are favorites in this matchup, and the game could turn in their favor if Ragans can leverage his elite skills against a Cardinals lineup that has not been overly dominant. The game’s total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting a balanced approach from both teams.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Andre Pallante (59.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Kansas City’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Walker’s true offensive ability to be a .309, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .079 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .230 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 4th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Cole Ragans’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (48.6 compared to 41.8% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In the last 7 days, Salvador Perez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 36 games (+18.30 Units / 44% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Ivan Herrera has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.90 Units / 60% ROI)