Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Cardinals vs Rockies Match – Thursday, September 26, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on September 26, 2024, at Coors Field, both teams are in different phases of their season. The Rockies, struggling with a 60-98 record, are out of playoff contention, while the Cardinals, at 81-77, are having an average season but still have a shot at a Wild Card spot if they finish strong.

The Rockies will send Kyle Freeland to the mound. Freeland, a left-hander, has had a tough year with a 5-8 record and a below-average 4.95 ERA. However, his 4.39 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky and could perform better than his stats indicate. Freeland’s recent outings have been inconsistent, but he will look to capitalize on a Cardinals offense ranked just 20th overall and 23rd in home runs.

On the other side, Kyle Gibson will start for the Cardinals. Gibson’s 8-8 record and 4.13 ERA suggest he’s been more effective, but his 4.82 xERA indicates a potential regression. The Rockies’ offense, ranked 19th overall and 16th in home runs, might exploit Gibson’s vulnerabilities, especially at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Cardinals slightly favored at a -120 moneyline, implying a 52% win probability. However, the Rockies’ implied win probability of 48% suggests they could surprise, especially if Freeland finds his groove and the offense supports him.

The game total is set at a high 10.5 runs, reflecting the potential for offensive fireworks. With both teams projected to score over five runs, fans can expect an exciting matchup as the Rockies aim to play spoiler against a Cardinals team clinging to postseason hopes.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Kyle Gibson has relied on his change-up 7.3% less often this season (9.7%) than he did last year (17%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (22.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone team of hitters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Over his previous 3 starts, Kyle Freeland has experienced a big drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2280 rpm over the whole season to 2217 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Ezequiel Tovar has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .319 rate is a fair amount higher than his .280 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Colorado Rockies bats as a group place 10th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 8.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+7.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+9.50 Units / 18% ROI)