Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Cardinals vs Reds Match – Thursday, May 01, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 1, 2025, in a critical National League Central matchup. After yesterday’s game, where the Reds fell to the Cardinals by a score of 9-1, both teams are looking to improve their standing. Currently, the Reds sit at 16-15, enjoying an above-average season, while the Cardinals are struggling at 14-17, indicating a below-average performance thus far.

Starting for the Reds is Andrew Abbott, who has a Win/Loss record of 2-0 this season and an ERA of 3.60. However, the advanced stats suggest Abbott may have been somewhat lucky, as his 4.61 FIP indicates potential regression. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, which could be a concern given his recent performance, including a game where he allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 innings.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who has an impressive ERA of 3.19 and a solid FIP of 1.89, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. Liberatore also projects to go 5.2 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs. His last outing saw him pitch 6 innings, giving up just 1 earned run, showcasing his ability to navigate through lineups effectively.

Offensively, the Reds rank 12th in MLB, while the Cardinals boast the 8th-best offense. However, with the Reds’ best hitter performing exceptionally well recently, hitting .375 over the last week with a 1.349 OPS, they may capitalize on their home-field advantage. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Reds holding a slight edge in implied team total at 4.39 runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Matthew Liberatore is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all parks — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  From last season to this one, Lars Nootbaar’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 94.4 mph to 89.3 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 30 games (+3.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+13.00 Units / 162% ROI)