Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals
(-120/+100)-125
On June 10, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Busch Stadium for the second game of their interleague series. In a tight matchup, the Cardinals and Blue Jays both sit at 36-30 this season, showcasing above-average performances from both clubs. In their last encounter, the Cardinals narrowly fell to the Blue Jays, losing 5-4, which adds extra significance to this game as they look to even the series.
Miles Mikolas is slated to take the mound for St. Louis, sporting a 4-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.96 this season. However, advanced metrics indicate that he may be due for regression, as his xFIP of 4.94 suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate. Mikolas has struggled with strikeouts, averaging just 2.8 per game, and is facing a Blue Jays lineup that has been the least strikeout-prone in MLB. This matchup could play to the advantage of the Blue Jays, who will counter with Chris Bassitt, an average pitcher with a 6-3 record and a better ERA of 3.56.
Offensively, the Cardinals rank 12th in MLB, bolstered by a strong team batting average that ranks 4th. However, they continue to struggle with power, sitting 23rd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays hold a slightly better offensive ranking at 11th, with a commendable batting average of 8th but also face challenges in power and speed, ranking 16th in home runs and 24th in stolen bases.
With a game total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets suggest a close contest, reflected in the Cardinals’ moneyline at -120 and the Blue Jays at +100. The Cardinals’ projected team total sits at 4.10 runs, while the Blue Jays are projected for 3.90 runs, indicating a balanced matchup where both teams have the potential to capitalize on each other’s weaknesses.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+105)Among every team in action today, the best infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Alejandro Kirk has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 99.4-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)In today’s game, Bo Bichette is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)Miles Mikolas is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#1-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- It may be wise to expect negative regression for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-125)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-195)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 58 games (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 67% ROI)