Get Expert Player Predictions for Yankees vs Red Sox – June 15, 2025

New York Yankees

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the New York Yankees on June 15, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees currently sit atop the division, boasting a strong record of 42-27, while the Red Sox are hovering around .500 at 36-36. Both teams are looking to solidify their standings as they head into the summer months.

In their last outing, the Yankees showcased their offensive prowess, dominating the Red Sox in a 7-2 victory, further emphasizing their position as the 1st best offense in MLB. Despite the loss, the Red Sox offense ranks a respectable 6th overall, demonstrating their potential to put runs on the board. However, they face a tough challenge against Yankees’ ace Max Fried, who is having an exceptional season with a 1.84 ERA and a Power Ranking of 6th among MLB starters.

Brayan Bello, projected to start for the Red Sox, has had an average season himself, with a 3.96 ERA and a Power Ranking of 107th. While Bello has shown flashes of promise, he struggles with walks, which could be problematic against a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in walks. Additionally, Bello’s high groundball rate may offer some hope against the Yankees’ powerful offense, which has already hit 109 home runs this season.

The projections suggest that the Yankees will have the upper hand, with an implied team total of 4.89 runs compared to the Red Sox’s low total of 3.61 runs. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair, but with the Yankees’ elite pitching and strong offense, they are favored to take the win once again.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a sizeable edge over flyball hitters, Max Fried and his 51.8% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today’s matchup facing 2 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball bats like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The New York Yankees have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.7% less often this year (47.3%) than he did last year (55%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Romy Gonzalez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Boston’s 90.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the game: #2 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+5.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.12 Units / 15% ROI)
• Rob Refsnyder – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 25% ROI)