New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-105
The Seattle Mariners will host the New York Yankees on May 14, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup. Both teams are performing well this season, with the Mariners sitting at 22-18 and the Yankees at 24-17. The Mariners are coming off a victory in their last game, while the Yankees look to bounce back after a tough loss.
Luis Castillo is projected to take the mound for the Mariners. With a solid 3-3 record and a respectable 3.95 ERA, Castillo has shown he can be an effective pitcher, though his 4.74 xFIP suggests he’s had some fortune on his side. He’s a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Yankees lineup that strikes out frequently, which could work in his favor. However, Castillo’s high-walk rate (9.5 BB%) could be a concern against a patient Yankees offense that leads the league in walks.
On the other side, Will Warren is expected to start for New York. With a 2-2 record and a 4.75 ERA, Warren has been average this season, but his 3.43 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, suggesting potential for improvement. He’s a high-groundball pitcher, which could be advantageous against the Mariners’ powerful lineup, currently ranked 5th in home runs with 56 this season.
Despite the Mariners’ 20th-ranked bullpen, their offense ranks 7th in MLB, showcasing their underlying talent. With both teams’ offensive strengths and weaknesses considered, the Mariners may have the edge in this matchup, especially given their home-field advantage at T-Mobile Park. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive outing.
New York Yankees Insights
- Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)The Seattle Mariners have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Will Warren in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Anthony Volpe has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 8.9% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The 12.5% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 team in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis F. Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Luis Castillo’s 94-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.5-mph drop off from last year’s 95.5-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Randy Arozarena has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.7-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games (+12.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+3.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.20 Units / 69% ROI)