Get Expert Player Predictions for Royals vs Rays – Thursday May 1, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Kansas City Royals on May 1, 2025, in what has become an intriguing series matchup. After last night’s game, where the Royals shut out the Rays 3-0, the Rays find themselves at 14-16 this season, struggling to find their footing, while the Royals sit slightly above them at 16-15, having a better overall campaign.

On the mound, Tampa Bay is set to start Shane Baz, the #39 rated starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Baz has been impressive this season with a 3-0 record and a stellar 2.45 ERA, although his 3.25 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, which aligns with his capacity to manage the game effectively, albeit with a troubling trend of allowing 4.8 hits and 1.6 walks on average.

Seth Lugo will take the ball for Kansas City, looking to build on a solid season where he holds a 2-3 record and a 3.08 ERA. While Lugo is considered an average pitcher, his projections indicate he could go around 6.1 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs. Both pitchers are right-handed, but Baz’s high strikeout rate of 31.6% could be muted against a Royals lineup that ranks as the 5th least strikeout-prone, presenting an interesting contrast in styles.

Offensively, the Rays rank an average 17th in MLB, while the Royals struggle significantly at 30th. The Rays’ ability to capitalize on Lugo’s weaknesses will be crucial, especially since they ranked 23rd in home runs this season, contrasting sharply with their high stolen base count. Given the current odds, the Rays have a projected team total of 4.70 runs, indicating they are favored to come out on top, despite their recent struggles.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Seth Lugo has utilized his curveball 5.3% less often this season (21%) than he did last season (26.3%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Maikel Garcia’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.4-mph now compared to just 90.4-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Kansas City Royals offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all starters, Shane Baz’s fastball velocity of 96.1 mph grades out in the 94th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.3) may lead us to conclude that Jonathan Aranda has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 24.4 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Tampa Bay Rays bats jointly rank 10th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 92.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+4.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jose Caballero has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)