Get Expert Player Predictions for Rockies vs Nationals – June 16, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will host the Colorado Rockies at Nationals Park on June 16, 2025, in what is the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals sitting at 30-41 and the Rockies at a dismal 14-57. In their last outings, the Nationals lost to the New York Mets 3-1, while the Rockies managed a significant 10-1 victory over the San Diego Padres.

Jake Irvin is projected to take the mound for the Nationals, bringing a Win/Loss record of 5-3 and a 4.21 ERA. Despite being considered one of the lower-tier pitchers, Irvin’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate thus far. He is set to face Rocky’s Carson Palmquist, who has struggled with an atrocious 7.77 ERA and a winless record of 0-4. The projections indicate that Irvin is expected to pitch approximately 6.0 innings and allow around 2.7 earned runs, presenting him as a stronger option against a Rockies offense that ranks 28th in MLB.

The Nationals’ offense, while not elite, holds a modest rank of 21st overall. They have shown flashes of capability with their best hitter boasting a solid .280 batting average and a productive 0.907 OPS. Comparatively, the Rockies’ best hitter has a slightly better batting average of .284 but lacks the overall power output, exemplified by their 26th rank in home runs this season.

As the Nationals look to turn their season around, the betting odds favor them significantly, with a moneyline of -170, highlighting their potential to capitalize on the Rockies’ ongoing struggles. Given the circumstances, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for the Nationals to secure a much-needed win as they continue to search for consistency.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  Carson Palmquist is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Washington (#3-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Compared to their .323 overall projected rate, the .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jake Irvin’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.4% vs. 41.7% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Alex Call is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington’s 93.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #4 team in baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.82 Units / 14% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 70 games (+12.17 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ryan Ritter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Ryan Ritter has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 44% ROI)