Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
(-105/-115)+115
As the Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers at T-Mobile Park on September 13, 2024, both teams are looking to find their footing in an American League West matchup. Following a narrow 5-4 loss to the Rangers the previous day, the Mariners are currently sitting at 74-73, while the Rangers are struggling at 71-76. This game marks the second in the series, and with both teams underperforming relative to their expectations, every game counts.
On the mound, Emerson Hancock is projected to start for the Mariners. Despite his 3-4 record and a below-average ERA of 4.76, his projections suggest he could allow only 2.3 earned runs today, indicating potential for a solid outing. However, his advanced stats, including a concerning 6.16 xERA, hint that he may have been fortunate thus far. In contrast, the Rangers will counter with Jacob deGrom, one of the elite pitchers in the league, ranked 4th overall. DeGrom’s projections show he could allow just 1.2 earned runs, making him a tough challenge for the Mariners’ struggling offense.
Seattle’s offense has been lackluster all season, ranking 24th overall in MLB, and they sit dead last in team batting average. In contrast, the Rangers rank 23rd in offense but have shown slightly better form. With low implied team totals of 3.34 runs for the Mariners and 3.66 runs for the Rangers, this game is expected to be a tight contest.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Mariners are projected as underdogs, but with Hancock’s potential for a surprising performance and the Rangers’ overall struggles, this matchup remains unpredictable.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)Jacob deGrom’s 98.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 100th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Marcus Semien’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.2-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 81.7-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Emerson Hancock to throw 84 pitches in today’s game (14th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Julio Rodriguez’s true offensive talent to be a .358, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .056 difference between that figure and his actual .302 wOBA.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+11.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+14.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)Josh Jung has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+13.00 Units / 38% ROI)