Get Expert Player Predictions for Rangers vs Astros – Wednesday September 17, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros

On September 17, 2025, the Houston Astros will face off against the Texas Rangers in the third game of their series at Minute Maid Park. This matchup is particularly significant as both teams are vying for a better position in the American League West. The Astros currently hold an 83-69 record, while the Rangers sit at 79-73, indicating both are having above-average seasons. The Astros won their last game against the Rangers by a score of 6-5, adding pressure on Texas to respond effectively.

Cristian Javier is projected to take the mound for the Astros, bringing a mixed bag of performance this season. With a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.78, Javier has struggled, though his 3.36 xERA suggests he might have been unlucky and could improve. He projects to pitch around 4.8 innings today, which raises concerns given his average strikeout rate of 4.6 and a troubling average of 2.0 walks per game.

On the other side, Jacob deGrom is expected to start for the Rangers. With a much more favorable Win/Loss record of 12-7 and an impressive ERA of 2.82, deGrom has established himself as an elite pitcher this season. Despite a lower than ideal projection of 4.7 hits allowed, he is likely to keep the Astros’ offense in check, which ranks 13th overall in MLB but shows some weaknesses, particularly in power and speed.

The Astros are currently an underdog with a moneyline of +125, reflecting a low implied team total of 3.46 runs. Meanwhile, the Rangers are favored at -145 with a more average implied total of 4.04 runs. Given deGrom’s dominance and the struggles of Javier, the Rangers may have the edge going into this crucial game.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 6 batters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jacob deGrom ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.217) provides evidence that Joc Pederson has suffered from bad luck this year with his .178 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  In his previous game started, Cristian Javier was firing on all cylinders and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Jesus Sanchez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Houston Astros offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 81 of their last 140 games (+14.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games (+10.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 73% ROI)