Get Expert Player Predictions for Phillies vs Mets – Tuesday August 26, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on August 26, 2025, the stakes are high in this critical National League East matchup. The Mets are currently having an above-average season with a 70-61 record, while the Phillies sit comfortably at 76-55, showcasing a strong performance this year. This game marks the second in their series, following a surprising blowout where the Mets won 13-3.

Sean Manaea is projected to take the mound for the Mets. Although his record stands at 1-2 with a 5.15 ERA, he has shown flashes of potential, as his 3.59 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky thus far. In his last start on August 21, Manaea managed 8 strikeouts but allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings, indicating inconsistency. The projections suggest he averages only 5.4 innings, and while he’s expected to strike out about 5.7 batters, he also projects to allow a troubling 5.1 hits per game.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who has been solid with a 12-6 record and a 4.10 ERA. In his last outing on August 20, Luzardo was impressive, pitching 6 innings and yielding just 1 earned run while racking up 12 strikeouts. He carries a significant edge in efficiency this season compared to Manaea.

Offensively, the Mets rank 7th overall in MLB, but their batting average is a middle-of-the-pack 16th. In contrast, the Phillies boast the 5th best offense, highlighted by their 2nd rank in team batting average. With both teams projected to score around 4.00 runs, this game promises to be a hard-fought battle. The Mets will need to leverage their home-field advantage and find a way to shake off their last defeat to gain momentum, especially against a well-performing Phillies squad.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average hurler, Jesus Luzardo has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 5.5 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  J.T. Realmuto has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Sean Manaea has gone to his secondary offerings 5.4% less often this season (38.6%) than he did last year (44%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.293) suggests that Luis Torrens has experienced some negative variance this year with his .221 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 56 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 94 games (+17.11 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)