Get Expert Player Predictions for Padres vs Tigers – Monday April 21, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Detroit Tigers

On April 21, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the San Diego Padres in an exciting interleague matchup at Comerica Park. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Tigers sitting at 13-9 and the Padres at 16-6. The stakes are high as this is the first game of a series that could impact both teams’ standings moving forward.

In their most recent outings, the Tigers and Padres have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly with their pitching matchups today. Detroit will send Jack Flaherty to the hill, while San Diego counters with Randy Vasquez. Flaherty has been solid, projecting to allow only 2.5 earned runs and strike out 5.6 batters over an average of 6.0 innings. However, he has struggled with hits and walks, allowing an average of 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks per game, which could present opportunities for the Padres’ potent offense.

Vasquez, despite being projected as one of the weaker pitchers according to advanced stats, has an impressive ERA of 1.74 this season. However, his xFIP of 6.33 suggests he might be due for a regression. Facing a Tigers lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts, Vasquez’s low strikeout rate could become a key factor, potentially leading to a high-scoring game if the Tigers capitalize on his weaknesses.

The Tigers’ offense ranks 12th overall and is led by a high-performing hitter who has been on fire lately, boasting a .440 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Padres’ offense ranks 4th and is highlighted by a standout player who has recorded 4 home runs and 9 RBIs in the same timeframe, showcasing their power.

Betting markets reflect the closeness of this matchup, with the Tigers currently favored at -130, which indicates a projected team total of 4.45 runs. As both teams look to gain an edge in this tight contest, fans and bettors alike can expect a compelling showdown with plenty of offensive fireworks.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Randy Vasquez’s 2410.8-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 85th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Over the last 7 days, Gavin Sheets’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the San Diego Padres in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .332 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Keider Montero is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Colt Keith’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.8-mph EV last year has dropped to 81.6-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-180)
  Spencer Torkelson has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+11.55 Units / 77% ROI)