Get Expert Player Predictions for Nationals vs Royals – Monday August 11, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals welcome the Washington Nationals to Kauffman Stadium on August 11, 2025, for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Royals sitting at 58-60, while the Nationals are languishing at 47-70. The Royals have been average overall, but the Nationals have had a particularly tough time, marked by their lackluster performance across the board.

In their last outing, the Royals played well, which is a positive sign as they look to build momentum. They will send Bailey Falter to the mound, a left-handed pitcher with a 7-6 record and an ERA of 4.14. Despite ranking as the 256th best starting pitcher in MLB, Falter has been lucky this season and projects to allow 2.6 earned runs over 5.1 innings today. However, his high flyball rate could work in his favor against a Nationals offense that ranks 27th in home runs.

Opposing Falter is Cade Cavalli, who has only started one game this year but boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA. Still, his projections suggest he may not maintain that level of success, with an xFIP of 2.08. Cavalli is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in least strikeouts, which could hinder his ability to capitalize on his strengths.

The betting odds favor the Royals with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their higher implied team total of 4.87 runs. Meanwhile, the Nationals, underdogs at +125, have an average implied team total of 4.13 runs. With both teams struggling overall, this matchup offers an intriguing dynamic, especially with the Royals looking to take advantage of their home field.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Cade Cavalli has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 14.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Jacob Young’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.4-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 80.9-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.8% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals ranks them as the #23 club in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Bailey Falter’s change-up percentage has jumped by 7.1% from last season to this one (0.6% to 7.7%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under Total Bases
  As it relates to his home runs, Randal Grichuk has suffered from bad luck this year. His 22.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.9.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 56 games at home (+25.60 Units / 40% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 104 games (+10.74 Units / 9% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  James Wood has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 25% ROI)