Get Expert Player Predictions for Nationals vs Royals – Monday August 11, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals welcome the Washington Nationals to Kauffman Stadium on August 11, 2025, for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Royals sitting at 58-60, while the Nationals are languishing at 47-70. The Royals have been average overall, but the Nationals have had a particularly tough time, marked by their lackluster performance across the board.

In their last outing, the Royals played well, which is a positive sign as they look to build momentum. They will send Bailey Falter to the mound, a left-handed pitcher with a 7-6 record and an ERA of 4.14. Despite ranking as the 256th best starting pitcher in MLB, Falter has been lucky this season and projects to allow 2.6 earned runs over 5.1 innings today. However, his high flyball rate could work in his favor against a Nationals offense that ranks 27th in home runs.

Opposing Falter is Cade Cavalli, who has only started one game this year but boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA. Still, his projections suggest he may not maintain that level of success, with an xFIP of 2.08. Cavalli is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in least strikeouts, which could hinder his ability to capitalize on his strengths.

The betting odds favor the Royals with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their higher implied team total of 4.87 runs. Meanwhile, the Nationals, underdogs at +125, have an average implied team total of 4.13 runs. With both teams struggling overall, this matchup offers an intriguing dynamic, especially with the Royals looking to take advantage of their home field.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Cade Cavalli has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 14.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  James Wood has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.3-mph average to last year’s 96.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals ranks them as the #23 club in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Bailey Falter’s change-up percentage has jumped by 7.1% from last season to this one (0.6% to 7.7%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  When it comes to his batting average, Nick Loftin has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .195 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .243.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 56 games at home (+25.60 Units / 40% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 104 games (+10.74 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jacob Young has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 49% ROI)