Get Expert Player Predictions for Nationals vs Blue Jays – March 31, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Toronto Blue Jays

On March 31, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays welcome the Washington Nationals to Rogers Centre for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams enter the matchup with mixed results; the Blue Jays have a record of 2-2, while the Nationals sit at 1-2. The Blue Jays recently secured a win against their rivals with a score of 3-1, while the Nationals also claimed victory, overpowering their opponent 5-1 in their last outing.

Starting for the Blue Jays is Bowden Francis, who, despite being ranked as the 201st best starting pitcher in MLB, is coming off a solid performance where he pitched 5 innings with no earned runs. However, his projections indicate he may struggle today, expected to allow 2.5 earned runs, 5 hits, and 1.1 walks, indicating potential vulnerability. Meanwhile, the Nationals will counter with Mike Soroka, who has proven to be below average lately, projecting to pitch 4.9 innings and give up 2.5 earned runs, along with 5 hits and 1.7 walks.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 16th in MLB, with their best hitter performing well early in the season, sporting a robust 1.021 OPS. Conversely, the Nationals rank 23rd offensively and have struggled to hit home runs, sitting at 29th in that category. This bodes well for the Blue Jays, as facing Soroka could provide an opportunity for their lineup to exploit his weaknesses.

With the Blue Jays as betting favorites at -165 and an implied team total of 4.74 runs, they appear well-positioned to take advantage of the Nationals’ poor start. Given the context and recent performances, this matchup could tilt favorably for Toronto.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With a 1.39 deviation between Mike Soroka’s 9.49 K/9 and his 8.10 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB since the start of last season as it relates to strikeouts and should negatively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Bowden Francis’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (90.7 mph) has been quite a bit slower than than his seasonal rate (92.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Ranking in the 99th percentile, the hardest ball Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 117.6 mph — a reliable indication of underlying power ability.
  Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 72 games at home (+11.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.35 Units / 66% ROI)
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  George Springer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+5.05 Units / 30% ROI)