Get Expert Player Predictions for Mets vs Red Sox – Wednesday May 21, 2025

New York Mets

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Boston Red Sox

On May 21, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the New York Mets at Fenway Park for what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Red Sox enter the game with a record of 25-25, having just won their previous game against the Mets by a score of 2-0. Meanwhile, the Mets are faring better with a record of 29-20, but they suffered a shutout loss in their last outing. This game marks the third in the series, adding a layer of intensity as both teams look to gain an edge.

The matchup features two contrasting pitchers. Garrett Crochet, projected to start for the Red Sox, has been exceptional this season, ranking as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 2.00 ERA and elite strikeout rate of 7.5 strikeouts per game highlight his effectiveness on the mound, although projections suggest he may be due for some regression. In his last start on May 16, he pitched 7 innings, yielding just 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters.

In contrast, Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets. With a 3.74 ERA and a FIP of 3.14, he has shown flashes of promise, ranking 54th among starting pitchers. However, his recent performance was less than stellar, as he allowed 4 earned runs in just 3 innings during his last start. The projections indicate that he might struggle against a Red Sox offense that ranks 8th overall in MLB and boasts a strong ability to capitalize on strikeouts.

The Red Sox are positioned as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, while the Mets sit at +125. With a projected team total of 4.06 runs for Boston, they appear to have the upper hand offensively, particularly against Megill, who may find it challenging against a lineup that excels at drawing strikeouts. Overall, this matchup presents a compelling narrative, especially with Boston looking to build momentum after their recent victory.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Tylor Megill’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (64.4 compared to 56.3% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Tyrone Taylor has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.7-mph dropping to 80.3-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+125)
  The 4th-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Garrett Crochet’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.8 mph this season (95.3 mph) below where it was last season (97.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball batters like Alex Bregman tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tylor Megill.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 32 games (+12.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+11.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 73% ROI)