Get Expert Player Predictions for Mets vs Marlins – Sunday September 28, 2025

New York Mets

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the New York Mets on September 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Marlins, with a record of 78-83, are enduring a below-average season, while the Mets sit at 83-78, enjoying an above-average campaign. This matchup is crucial for the Mets as they look to solidify their postseason aspirations.

In their last outing, the Mets showcased their offensive prowess, taking down the Marlins convincingly. The Marlins will send Edward Cabrera to the mound, who has had a solid season with a 3.66 ERA and a Power Rankings position of #61 among starting pitchers. Cabrera has started 25 games this year, boasting a 7-7 record, but he projects to pitch only 4.8 innings today, which is a concern. His high groundball rate of 47% could serve him well against a Mets lineup that has hit 224 home runs this season, the 5th most in MLB.

On the other side, Sean Manaea will take the ball for the Mets. Although Manaea has struggled with a 5.80 ERA and a 2-4 record over 11 starts, his 3.28 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings today, which is more favorable than Cabrera’s projection.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 18th overall, struggling particularly with home runs, ranking 27th in that category. Meanwhile, the Mets boast the 6th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their power and a strong batting lineup. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, but the projections favor the Mets, who have an average implied team total of 4.19 runs compared to the Marlins’ 3.81 runs. This matchup promises to be a compelling contest as the Mets aim to extend their winning streak.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  Sean Manaea has gone to his four-seam fastball 48.7% more often this year (60%) than he did last season (11.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+195/-265)
  Francisco Alvarez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 98.8-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-125)
  The New York Mets projected batting order projects as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+105)
  The Miami Marlins outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Javier Sanoja – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.278) may lead us to conclude that Javier Sanoja has had bad variance on his side this year with his .242 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 57 of their last 91 games (+18.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 79 games (+8.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 25% ROI)