Get Expert Player Predictions for Marlins vs Rays – Friday June 6, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Miami Marlins on June 6, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, though for different reasons. The Rays are in a competitive spot at 33-29, showcasing an above-average performance this season. In contrast, the Marlins find themselves struggling at 23-37, marking a dismal campaign thus far.

In their last outings, the Rays edged past their opponent with a 4-3 victory on June 5, while the Marlins fell 3-2, underscoring their recent struggles. For this interleague showdown, the Rays will send Zack Littell to the mound. He’s had an inconsistent season, reflected in his Power Rankings position as the 148th best starting pitcher in MLB. While his ERA is a solid 3.86, his 4.58 xERA suggests he might not be able to sustain this level of performance, indicating potential trouble ahead.

Edward Cabrera counters for the Marlins, and although he’s also been rated as below average, he has shown flashes of potential, including a last start where he pitched 6 innings without giving up any earned runs. Cabrera’s solid outing gives Miami some hope, but he must improve his walks, which stand at an alarming average of 2.3 per game.

Offensively, the Rays rank a respectable 17th in MLB, bolstered by their outstanding 1st ranking in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Marlins struggle at the plate, with their power ranking plummeting to 27th in home runs.

Despite the Marlins’ recent struggles, the projections suggest that Tampa Bay may secure a victory, given their favorable odds and home-field advantage. The total for this game is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting a balanced matchup that could see the Rays capitalize on their stronger lineup and pitching.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Edward Cabrera’s four-seam fastball usage has decreased by 16.5% from last year to this one (27.4% to 10.9%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.1-mph figure last season has fallen to 84.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Heriberto Hernandez, Dane Myers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Zack Littell’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (91.4 mph) below where it was last year (92.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Jake Mangum tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Edward Cabrera.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.10 Units / 181% ROI)