Get Expert Player Predictions for Marlins vs Nationals – September 02, 2025

Miami Marlins

@

Washington Nationals

On September 2, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Miami Marlins in a pivotal National League East matchup at Nationals Park. The Nationals come into this game with an unfortunate 54-83 record, while the Marlins stand slightly better at 65-73, both teams struggling to find consistency this season. In their previous game against each other, the Marlins secured a close victory, which adds extra pressure on the Nationals to bounce back.

Projected starters for this matchup are Cade Cavalli for the Nationals, who has shown signs of improvement despite a rough season. Although Cavalli’s 5.11 ERA indicates struggles, his 4.05 xFIP suggests he might be due for better fortune moving forward. He has a Win/Loss record of 1-1 in just five starts this year. His average projected performance today includes 5.2 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs, but he may struggle against a Marlins offense that ranks 9th in batting average and is adept at putting the ball in play.

Contrastingly, Adam Mazur will take the mound for the Marlins. With a 5.59 ERA and a concerning Win/Loss record of 0-1 in two starts, Mazur has not impressed. His projections show he’ll likely pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, which is below average. The Nationals may find a glimmer of hope in this matchup since Mazur’s high-groundball rate plays into their low-power offense.

Betting markets have set the Game Total at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a relatively high-scoring affair. Both teams have been placed on equal footing with a moneyline of -110. However, the Nationals’ offense, currently ranking 26th in MLB, will need to capitalize on their opportunities to turn the tide in their favor. With a better projection than their current odds suggest, this matchup could be the spark the Nationals desperately need to end their season on a high note.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Mazur – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to average, Adam Mazur has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -11.7 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Liam Hicks’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 84.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 80.3-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.241) provides evidence that Dylan Crews has suffered from bad luck this year with his .202 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+14.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 away games (+17.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 62% ROI)